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What's at Stake in the Future of the Economy

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

More than a year has passed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which is widely viewed as the beginning of the economic crisis that still dominates headlines in the news, punditry, and more importantly, the anxious thoughts of struggling families around the country.  Several weeks ago, every major media outlet ran stories looking back on the past year of economic woes.  The importance of looking back, of course, is to find a better way to move forward.

 

Many of us grew up almost exclusively during the good times.  There were some bumps along the way but, in general, it seemed that the good times kept getting better with no end in sight.  Then a year ago, we all were abruptly acquainted with the sound of a bubble popping.  Of course, we should have been familiar with at least some of the signs - the dot-coms came crashing down long before Lehman, AIG, Fannie and Freddie.

 

But now, times have changed, or so we're told.  I certainly hope so - for the sake of the nearly 10 percent of Americans who are unemployed and for my own sake, since I hope not to join the unemployment lines after graduation.  I have to admit that I'm not terribly encouraged by the fact that since the markets bottomed out in March, AIG has been the 6th best performing stock, rallying almost 500 percent - even though the company accepted an enormous government bailout that it won't be able to repay for years.

 

The real measure of our country moving forward will not be if we can regenerate huge amounts of wealth for companies, but whether we can create stability and maintain a high quality of life for our people.  Our ability to succeed in this task is certainly not assured and will depend on a number of complicated factors.

 

One of those factors is how well individual states balance priorities and deliver services while their budgets are under increasing strain.  Thirty-eight states faced revenue shortfalls in 2009, up from 25 in 2008.  Those numbers matter because we rely on our states to build and maintain our roads, create an economic environment that supports our businesses small and large, educate our kids and make sure they have the health care they need to grow into healthy and productive citizens.

 

All together, our states have cut over $31.5 billion from primary and higher education, Medicaid, corrections, transportation and other critical services.  In California, budget writers have been forced to deliver a body blow to primary and higher education, reduce support for everything from women's shelters to state parks, furlough frontline employees and even postpone cutting the year end payroll checks until after the first of the year so they end up on next year's books.

 

Now, in an ironic twist, the state has figured out something working parents learned long ago: childcare is expensive.  The state is cutting back on the work requirement for receiving public assistance.  Californians who are receiving state aid and have young kids can voluntarily opt out of the work requirement, a move that policy makers hope will save the state money on child care subsidies for those parents.

 

The interesting thing about the policy change is that only about 10 percent of those eligible to opt out of the work or work training requirements have chosen to do so.  The vast majority of the parents eligible to opt out want to keep working and gaining other experience, even though juggling family and work responsibilities is a daunting task (and even more so when one is living on the edge).

 

What California's experience suggests, and what other anecdotes from around the country also indicate, is that many people want to do their part to make our economy work again.  But that means that our economic system needs to work just as well for Main Street as it does for Wall Street.  As the collapse of markets continues to recede into the past, the real measure of recovery will be whether times truly have changed, or whether we return to business as usual.  If we've learned anything in the past year, I hope it's that the biggest market rallies aren't worth forgetting that the lives and livelihood of real people are what's at stake.